|
9/1/98 |
Online
System Services NASDAQ:WEBB |
Online System
Services is a small company that provides software to support
the development of online communities among users of cable modems.
The company lurks on the periphery of the Internet business,
which may attract interest among tech-hungry investors. But
these investors should exercise caution, else they wind up as
roadkill on the information superhighway.
Online System
Services ("OSS") is trying to stay afloat in the face of escalating
losses by issuing additional stock, rapidly diluting what little
book value remains. The company anticipates continuing losses
from operations and huge writedowns in equity as a result of
pending mergers. Supposed synergies from those mergers appear
elusive. Its products are not meeting with widespread market
acceptance. OSS' future looks bleak, as it attempts to compete
against some of the largest players in the industry by using
local content web pages provided by volunteers.
OSS, based
in Denver, is losing a great deal of money. The company has
yet to earn a profit, while accumulating over $9 million in
losses. Recently, losses have risen rapidly even as sales have
fallen. OSS lost $4.3 million during the two latest quarters,
far exceeding revenue in the same period of only $1.0 million.
Even OSS' most recent quarterly report states that operating
and net losses are expected to continue this year and into succeeding
years.
| Company Name |
Online System Services |
| NASDAQ Symbol |
WEBB |
| Stock price, 9/17/98 |
$5.625 |
| 52-Week Range |
Low:$4.87
High:$16.00 |
| Market Capitalization |
$20 million |
| Common Shares Outstanding |
3.5 million |
| Float |
2.1 million |
| Price/Earnings |
N/A |
| Price/Book |
4.0 |
| Price/Sales |
7.0 |
| Short Position (6/98) |
39,000 shares |
| Trading Days Equiv |
0.8 |
These losses are substantial for
a small company of 54 employees that, as of June, derived 74%
of its sales from only three customers. The three companies
are Intermedia, a small cable operator in Tennessee; FiberTel,
a cable company in Argentina; and American Telecasting, a wireless
broadcast provider. None are considered a major presence in
the domestic cable or Internet industry.
OSS is targeting small markets
with a product for which little demand may exist. The company
offers a service called i2u that allows cable operators to offer
high-speed Internet access to subscribers of the cable system.
This is similar to the service provided by @Home, a much larger
company in which AT&T just acquired a substantial interest.
OSS recently began giving away the non-proprietary hardware
that allows the cable operators to provide Internet access to
its subscribers. OSS hopes to make money on the related proprietary
software that helps create local communities.
OSS' business plan calls for it
to sell premium local content to subscribers of the cable Internet
providers. OSS recognizes that Microsoft's Sidewalk and AOL's
Digital City, among others, provide local content for free,
and plans to target smaller markets of a couple hundred thousand
people or less not currently served by Sidewalk or Digital City.
Unfortunately for OSS, these plans
for premium local content appear to fly in the face of business
reality. The task of creating and maintaining up-to-date, comprehensive
content for hundreds of local communities is immense and well
beyond the company's resources. OSS now relies on volunteers
to use its software to create local content pages, and plans
to provide one-person staffs to work at the cable operators
to assist the volunteers. The customer base for the premium
local content is restricted to the fraction of the community
subscribing to the cable Internet service. Additionally, OSS
expects these customers to pay an additional fee for information
they most likely can find for free in their newspapers or elsewhere
on the Internet. An OSS executive acknowledged that the company
may want to rethink its current strategy of limiting its customer
base to cable access subscribers and instead broaden its service
to all Internet users.
OSS has a history of trying and
failing at businesses. This time last year, the company was
also in the business of developing and hosting web sites and
providing healthcare information services. It has since exited
both businesses and taken a sizeable charge against earnings
as a result.
OSS is now in the process of merging
with two companies, SkyConnect and Durand. The announced purchase
price for SkyConnect and Durand is $24.7 million and $12.4 million,
respectively. SkyConnect had accumulated losses of $31.5 million
as of March 31, 1998; Durand had accumulated a deficit of $6.8
million as of December 31, 1997. Neither company has ever posted
positive earnings results for any full year.
SkyConnect provides digital ad
insertion into cable programming and is developing video on
demand. OSS sees strong synergies between its relationship with
cable companies and SkyConnect's video products that could be
delivered through cable connections. Given OSS' small customer
base, it's difficult to see much synergy resulting from the
merger.
Durand brings expertise in creating
virtual communities, like those OSS hopes to create in small
towns throughout the United States, but does not appear to have
enjoyed much success. Electric Minds, free and open to people
throughout world, is considered the company's premier community
even though fewer than 100 people signed on during one recent
morning.
OSS appears to be in serious financial
difficulty. Its outside public accountants have indicated "substantial
doubt regarding the Company's ability to continue as a going
concern." Losses are accelerating and revenues are falling.
Its shareholders equity of $4.9 million, as of June 1998, will
not last long if losses continue at the $4.3 million rate posted
for the first six months of this year. As a result of the pending
mergers, OSS will take a $25 million charge later this year
against shareholders equity to write down acquired in-process
research and development.
The most recent quarterly statement,
filed August 14, indicated that OSS would need additional funding
to continue operations beyond October. The SEC filing states
that OSS will need to raise at least $15 million to implement
its business plan. The 10-Q states that the company possesses
a letter of intent to raise between $15 million-$18 million
in gross proceeds through a private placement. But OSS' chief
financial officer recently indicated that the placement may
be scaled back to two million shares, due to the recent decline
in the stock price. If so, OSS would only be able to raise some
$10 million before underwriting discounts, less than the amount
needed to implement its business plan.
OSS has already turned to complicated
convertible preferred offerings to raise approximately $3 million
in the past 12 months. These securities are floorless convertibles,
meaning that the conversion rate can fall in step with a decline
in OSS' share price. These securities minimize the investment
risk for their holders, but not for owners of common stock.
If the share
price continues to fall, current
stock owners will see increasing dilution in the value of their
shares as the number of shares that are converted increases
as the price of OSS' stock falls.
All trademarks are the property
of their respective holders.
ONLINE SYSTEM SERVICES INC Short Interest Data
| Date |
Current
Shares Short |
Previous
Shares Short |
Change Shares |
Percent
Change |
Avg Volume |
Ratio |
| 3/1/99 |
562773 |
388865 |
173908 |
45 |
183921 |
3.06 |
| 2/1/99 |
388865 |
362164 |
26701 |
7 |
327441 |
1.19 |
|