By David Zgodzinski August 14, 2000 The clouds part for an instant and the long-tormented animal is graced by a fleeting shaft of sunlight. It lifts its head and shakes its dirt-caked shoulders to find that a pair of clean, white wings has sprouted. It begins to walk toward the open fields. One shaky step follows another, quickening as determination begins to flash in its pink eyes. This pig is gonna fly. But just as those short legs begin scampering and the wings start flapping and the wind is blowing its curly tail to and fro, the Compaq shareholder suddenly wakes up! Another disappointment. That’s why they call it Compork. On Wall Street, pigs don’t fly. Pigs get slaughtered. Compaq has been in the dumps for months. Watching one technology rally after another take off without it. Mud bound. But this time. . .this time it sure felt like it was for real. On July 26, the company released its second-quarter report. Compaq earned 21 cents a share versus an 11-cents-per-share loss a year ago. Compaq had over $10 billion in revenues and there were a number of bright spots, for a change. rudedog had written to the Compaq thread. . . I personally could care less what PC unit growth and market share is -- what I care about is corporate earnings and revenue growth. PCs have contributed nothing to earnings for a year. If they arre neutral to positive going forward, that's a victory. But even the lowly business PC division, which has been muscled out by Dell and losing money for a year, posted a profit, spurred on by new products like the iPaq thin client. There was a new sense of confidence in the management team. CEO Michael Capellas has headed the company for just over a year. He seemed bland and unimaginative at first. But now with a successful profit picture behind him, he seemed presidential. Seamus McKenna wrote. . . I have suspected for some time now that the new management in CPQ is attempting to emulate Cisco Systems in the way it deals with Wall St. Cisco has made a feature of always coming in with quarterly results that are a penny above expectations. Over the years, expectations, of course, have steadily risen but the company has always been up to the challenge. The success of the strategy depends on not advertising it in advance, of just doing it and letting the market itself divine, over time, that it is dependable behavior. For CSCO the rest, as they say, is history. If CPQ can continue in this vein it bodes well for those of us that are long on the stock. Right now Michael Capellas and J. Greene seem to be very confident in the future viability of this policy. Good new has been a long time coming for the Compaq campesinos. The good earnings report brought good cheer to the thread. Captain Jack wrote in a possible reference to the CEO’s Clark Kent-like demeanor. . . I think Michael Capellas should spring for T-shirts for all the regulars that have been here for over a year. . . it has a nerd pocket protector pictured with "Compaq" on it. Then below the saying "Not all the heros wear tights and a cape" And the good news is more than just a turnaround story. There is great potential in some of Compaq’s new products. From the low end with the wildly popular Pocket PC handheld computer, to the high end with Wildfire servers, new storage systems and even supercomputer arrays, the company is turning out new machines that are catching the attention of the market. Steven N wrote on Aug. 3. . . I think that Compaq has proven their superiority in super computing with sequence and assembly of the human genome. Quite a feat of mapping. The outlook is even beginning to attract some new buyers to the thread. Sonki wrote on July 26. . . Are these "seriously cool" products going to drive the stocks beyond 30? CPQ reminds me the way sunw was 2 years ago. Congratulations to all who have waited. Just getting my feet wet now. JDN replied. . . Dear Sonki: If you are just getting into this stock, I wonder if the good folks on this thread realize what a good sign that is. Sonki's picks inevitably rise. (gg) And the good earnings news brought out in force the fearless analysts, who bravely revised their earnings estimates upward and raised their ratings, after it had become obvious to everybody and their grandmother that things were looking up. PCSS relayed the information. . . CPQ UPGRADES today: PW (Neutral to Attractive) DLJ (Buy to Top Pick) HQ (Buy to Strong Buy) ALL believe CPQ did better than expected Rev & Margins With good numbers in and a gleam in Wall Street’s eye, the Compaq thread watched breathlessly as that old stock that they call Compork got some air under its pig’s feet. Night Writer wrote on the morning after the earnings release. . . Looks like a break out is in progress. Traded average daily volume in the first ½ hour. It's, taking a little rest right now. Should trade at least twice normal volume for a Break Out. But the market was down, and the stock was fighting a headwind. PCSS wrote to Night Writer. . . The market is pee-ing on our parade! And at exactly the same time, Night Writer wrote to PCSS I wish the market was up. It would be like throwing gasoline on CPQ's fire But by the end of the day, the stock looked strong. Piotr Koziol wrote gleefully. . . Houston, we have a breakout!!! CPQ up 6.68% with 271% of average volume. Are the company’s troubles over? Is Compaq going to snort and chow down on Dell for lunch and Hewlett-Packard for dinner? There is some good lean and mean news, but there is still plenty of flub. JDN wrote. . . I just received my FIRST CPQ computer catalog yesterday. No wonder they have trouble with Consumer sales. It’s awful. Best thing I can say about it is they have a lot of low prices on low end systems for home and small office use, but if you are interested in a highend system not only are there none preconfigured but the catalog doesn’t list the upgrades and cost. Example, graphics card, even their best comes with only a 16mb card and no mention of 32 or DDR 64 anywhere (that’s just one minor example, another one-no where does it list cost of increasing HD storage from the Paltry amount included in the preconfigured system. Why don’t these people just get themselves a Dell catalog and just copy the damn thing. rudedog responded. . . Confusion in the product message is one of CPQ's big problems, and I presume that is what the new marketing team is supposed to address. DELL has always done a "good - better - best" product placement, limiting themselves to the highest volume segments of the markets they play in, and that has served them well. CPQ has simplified their product line a lot this year but still has a ways to go. But the stock kept climbing despite a lousy week for the markets, finding a fresh gust of buying every time that it fell back a bit. The thread was thrilled. Night Writer summed up the week’s performance. . . All in all CPQ didn't do badly this week. DOW - 139 NAZ - 267 CPQ +1.25 Andreas had been disappointed before, and wasn’t ready to buy the airborne scenario just yet. . . You're very good at putting a positive spin on the fact that a few days after a so-called banner earnings report cpq is selling only 5 bucks below what it sold for in march. I am totally perplexed by the fact that you think five bucks below four months ago is just fine. I suppose if it was ten bucks below four months ago that would be even better. LOL. The doubters would hold their ground as long as the stock traded under the cloud of $30. The stock had pushed against that barrier a few times in the past four months, only to fall back. Elwood P. Dowd wrote. . . The FAT HOG is knockin' on 30's door again, for about the 3rd time today. Can it close above 30 today? I say no but that it will sometime this week, barring a market meltdown. PCSS agreed. . . HELLO . . . 30 . . . again today Some nice sized UP-tick buys came thru just before hitting 30 this time CPQ'll make it over 30 (sooner vs later) The thread held its collective breath, which may have had something to do with the odor emanating from the flyer. When Compaq finally broke through $30 and flew up into the blue beyond, there was jubilation. Jim McMannis exalted on Aug. 8. . . The pig flys? I admit, I'm impressed by those pretty new cases. . . I'm back over even! After 2 3/4 years. . . Wow. . . Jimbo Cobb, who loves to laugh at Compaq, wrote. . . This PATHETIC LOSER OF A PIG IS BRINGING HOME THE BACON 2DAY !!!!!!!!!!! And on Aug.8, as Compaq first poked its snout over $30, he wrote a series of posts that he had obviously been saving up for this glorious moment. Each post had a pig reference and a URL to an image of some super porker. Jimbo Cobb wrote. . . PORKFOLIO !!!! THE PIG HAS ITS DAY . . . And the image that you saw if you clicked on the URL was of a smiling golden pig with wings, carrying a golden briefcase sporting a molded $ sign on the side. It was gorgeous. And to make the newfound success of the stock even sweeter, it came at exactly the same time that arch rival Dell was losing altitude. Elwood P. Dowd wrote on Aug. 1. . . Once in a great while and by coincidence, CPQ trucks by on the CNBC ticker with DELL directly below it, as it did moments ago. It's especially nice and equally as unusual for CPQ to be up 5/8 while DELL is down 1 1/4, as it was moments ago. I THINK I LIKE THAT!!! jajajaja El MeDroogies had a brief explanation. . . Could be that people are catching on that Dell's hit its high water mark, and that the direct model -- while good -- has limitations. Liking CPQ's diversity at about this point. Even the day after Dell’s earning report, which saw that stock drop over $4, casting doubts about the future of the PC cycle, Compaq still managed to close up 1/8. PCSS wrote about the Compaq/Dell ratio on that day. . . @2:30 1.25 X CPQ = DELL gap narrowing (was 2 X) a few wks ago) What does it mean when pigs fly? Is it some apocalyptic signal? Is this freak of nature absolutely the last hurrah of the bull market? Or is it just something we’re going to have to get used to when genomics really gets rolling and they cross sows with seagulls.

Discussion Threads Compaq SI Members Featured rudedog Seamus McKenna Captain Jack Steven N Sonki JDN PCSS Night Writer Piotr Koziol Andreas Elwood P. Dowd Jim McMannis Jimbo Cobb MeDroogies

Are there some new developments on your thread? Radical personalities? Hot New technologies? Takeovers? Scandals?

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Dave Zgodzinski